IN CONTEXT #44, Summer 1996
© 1996 by Context Institute

From Brad Fregger:

More of the Same: Assuming a 20 year future, I would give this scenario an 8 on the chance that things will not be significantly different sociologically. This is an easy one on how it might develop, things just continue with relatively slight changes politically or socially. No more drastic changes than we have observed over the past 20 years.

Within in the context of land-use planning, this is the most important scenario of prepare for; mostly because we are much more capable of making adequate and effective plans when we have a past with which to draw from, it is extremely difficult to plan for situations that have never existed before.

Disaster and Collapse: I would judge the chances of this happening in the next 20 years to be less than 1. While this type of calamity has happened in the past, the odds of another instance happening in the next 20 years are insignificant. Not even the black plague in Europe had the kind of impact that you are talking about here.

Since you are talking about a "world-wide" impact, I can only envision a major natural disaster (asteroid hitting the earth, shifting of the magnetic poles, an outbreak of an extremely effective disease that kills 75% of the population), this is extremely unlikely. It is, of course, very possible that this kind of impact can happen on a country-wide level (the current situation in Russia, or any other numerous places around the earth), so it might be important to consider what you might do under the circumstances, should this happen within your country.

From a land-use planning perspective, I can't believe that it is possible to effectively plan for this contingency. Only the most general plans can be made, and any plans must be designed to be extremely flexible, since nobody knows for sure what we will be up against should this happen. It's possible, if you are paranoid enough, to plan for survival, however, I suspect that even these plans would not, could not, plan for what actually happens. I would not waste a lot of time considering this alternative.

Eco-tech Triumph: Within the next 20 years, I would give this alternative about a 1.5 chance of happening. Basically, I have very little faith in governments, or the average person being able to incorporate this kind of development into their lives in ways that would be even moderately positive to the world in general. I can imagine a way this would happen, but it would demand an individual with the charisma of a Hitler and the morals of Christ, and he/she would have to create a new religion based on the concepts of a sustainable future, one where the people "knew" that "God" was calling them to this kind of living, to this new future for humanity.

From a land-use perspective, I would spend more time on this than on the previous, mostly because this kind of thinking can have a significant impact on a local level, especially with small groups of committed people. Additionally, any planning done along this line would probably be impactual in the "business as usual" scenario, and therefore not wasted. In fact, I would probably do my planning by looking at each element of the plan from both alternatives.

Transformation of Consciousness: In the next 20 years..., "no way Jose'." This has about as much chance of happening as "disaster and collapse," a 1 on a scale of 1-10. I can't even think of a scenario that would bring this about in the next 20 years (I guess visitors from another world could come and use some mind stretching technology to move us to the next level of existence, as they did with the apes in 2001, or Christ could return, only do it this time like he did in the Book of Mormon, and bring with him the ability and the desire to raise humanity's consciousness).

Planning for this eventuality would be a waste of time, not only because of the extremely slight chance of it happening, but also because if it did, everything we would want to do along the land-use, etc. plans, would immediately become very easy, or we would understand clearly why they weren't possible.

Additional Scenarios:

How about a scenario where an ultra-right wing individual becomes President of the United States. Someone who is extremely conservative politically, socially, and theologically. This happens because of increased crime, or massive terrorist activity in the U.S. where a nuclear bomb is detonated in New York City. He/she then uses the might and power of the United States to bring his/her beliefs to the rest of the world ("We must do this to assure our safety and the safety of our children's future.")

Or, somewhat the same, what if a conservative Muslim faction takes over the entire middle east, uses all that oil money to build a war machine beyond anything the world has ever seen, and then takes over the world. Remember, this is effectively what was done when that religion began, and I feel sure that this is the ultimate goal of the conservatives alive today. How would this impact us? What should we prepare for? Can we prepare for this any more than we can prepare for some of the other alternatives mentioned.

One final scenario would be the rise of the poor and downtrodden to power in the United States. Essentially, a class revolution, where the middle and upper middle classes are effectively wiped out and a new form of government is put into place. How would this impact the rest of the world? What are the chances of this happening? Remember that it has already happened twice in this century, once in Russia and once in China. This fact alone makes the chance of it happening here much greater than some of the other scenarios you suggested.

Well, that's all for now. Please excuse the spelling errors, and the fact that I didn't give it a good edit--it's essentially a mind purge, without a lot of time being spent to hone it. I did enjoy thinking about these possibilities, and the exercise in general.

Brad