Improving The Economic Value Of Coastal Public Forest Lands
Restoring economic and ecological health to Oregon public forestry
practices
IN CONTEXT #44, Summer 1996
© December 1994 by Tom Bender, © 1996
by Context Institute
SUMMARY
Forestry, like many social issues, has become caught in a gridlock between
those who wish to preserve a resource and those who want to maximize the
immediate benefits from it. Fortunately, a new perspective is now emerging
which appears to offer substantial benefits to all parties.
New scientific evidence indicates that proper long-rotation forestry, with
cut cycles from 180 to 240 years, can provide dramatic increases in timber
and financial yields, while restoring the ecological health of the forest
system. (Wigg, Mark, 1989, "The Economics of Sustainable Forestry",
Society of American Foresters.)
The non-timber economic value of other uses of the mature and healthy forests
resulting from such cut cycles can also significantly exceed the timber
value, adding even more to the economic benefit of these forest management
practices.
- TIMBER sustainable yields possible with long rotations can DOUBLE
current yields, while providing an amazing NINE-FOLD increase in
net economic returns from timber production. (Wigg, M. Ibid.;
Burkhardt, Hans J., 1993, "Maximizing Forest Productivity".)
- FISHERIES restoration possible with long rotation harvesting
can produce annual revenues in the order of seven to twenty times current
timber revenues. (Williams, Ted, 1990, "The Spotted Fish Under
the Spotted Owls", Fly Rod & Reel.)
- RECREATION development possible with long rotation harvesting
can produce annual revenues in the order of five to ten times current timber
revenues. (Ibid.)
- SPECIAL FOREST PRODUCTS such as mushrooms and medicinals, possible
with long rotation harvesting, can produce significant annual revenues.
- TOTAL net economic value of long rotation forest management thus
appears to be roughly TWENTY to THIRTY TIMES that of present management
practices!
NEW CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FORESTRY MANAGEMENT
Recent scientific studies have shown several vital elements of forestry
practices that have been ignored in earlier management practices:
- Timber production per acre of Oregon coastal forests, particularly
with commercial thinning, does not drop off significantly beyond the
traditional CMAI point for many, many years. (Curtis, Robert O.,
1994, "Some Simulation Estimates of Mean Annual Increment of Douglas-Fir"
USFS Research Paper PNW-RP-471.) Harvest cycles can be extended several
times the conventional 60 year rotations while still staying quite near
the maximum productivity. Such practices, in fact, often produce increase
rather than decrease in net timber yield. They also typically produce a
higher percentage of high value wood in larger logs. (Haynes, Richard
W., and Fight, Roger D., 1992, "Price Projections for Selected Grades
of Douglas Fir...." USFS Research Paper PNW-RP-447. Newton, M. and
Cole, E. C., 1987, "A Sustained-Yield Scheme for Old-Growth Douglas
Fir", WJAF. Fight, Roger D., Cahill, James M., Fahey, Thomas D., and
Snellgrove, Thomas A., 1987, "Financial Analysis of Pruning Coast Douglas-Fir",
USFS Research Paper PNW-RP-390.)
- Long-rotation timber harvest can sustain timber yields that would
otherwise be lost from the disease, nutrient loss, soil losses, and
fungal destruction of current timber management practices. (Ingham, Elaine,
1994, "Soil Organisms and Forest Health", Headwaters Journal.)
- Extreme health impacts to humans, fish and wildlife have
recently been shown to result from the use of organo-chloride compounds
such as employed in present management practices. (Colborn, Theo and
Clement, Coralie, Chemically-Induced Alterations in Sexual and Functional
Development: The Wildlife / Human Connection, Princeton Scientific Publiching
Co., 1992.)
- Management costs have a major impact on net economic yield.
They occur largely during the cut/replant/early growth part of the cycle.
Longer rotations which eliminate these cycles of management costs produce
far greater net economic returns. (Wigg, M. Op. Cit.)
- Northwest Oregon coastal forests have exceedingly high risk of
erosion causing soils loss impacting both timber and fisheries. Long rotations
dramatically lessen soils disturbance and loss affecting fisheries and timber
production and their revenues. ("Tillamook Bay Drainage Basis
Erosion and Sedimentation Study", Soil Conservation Service, 1978.
R.K. Nawa, C.A. Frissell, J.L. Ebersole, N.J. Liss, "Life History and
Persistence of Anadromous Fish Stocks in Relation to Stream Habitats and
Water Classification", Annual Progress Report, Fiscal 1991, Oak Creek
Lab. of Biology Dept. of Fish and Wildlife, Oregon State University. Ziemer,
Robert R., "Management of Steep Land Erosion, An Overview", J.
of Hydrology V20#1, 1981.)
- Soil microorganism health issues play a much more vital role than
previous suspected in the reforestation success, productivity, and disease-resistance
of forest stands. (Ingham, Elaine, Op. Cit.)
- Long rotation forestry creates a forest with more varied age classes
needed for forest and wildlife health, without the
need for "no-cut reserves".
- The non-timber product value of forest lands, which far
exceeds that of timber production, has been ignored and damaged by past
practices.
- Forest Service studies in 1989 and 1990 showed tourism, hunting,
and recreation producing $122 billion vs logging revenues of $13 billion
- TEN TIMES AS GREAT! (New York Times, "The Great Tree Robbery",
Sept 17, 1991.)
- A 1990 Forest Service study showed that recreation fees could be
three times as great as revenues from timber. ("Millions Lost to
US Economy Logging Old Forests", Forest Resources, 1993.)
- Salmon from the Smith River in California, even heavily damaged
by logging, produced $7.8 million/year - more than the entire logging revenues
from the basin. (Williams, T. Op. Cit.)
- A Forest Service study on the Salmon River in Idaho showed that
a $14 million logging operation resulted in a $100 million salmon revenue
loss. (Williams, T. Op. Cit.)
The accompanying table, excerpted from "The
Economics of Sustainable Forestry" presented by Mark Wigg to the Society
of American Foresters, 1989, summarizes the impacts of many of these issues
on the timber yield and net economic return of forests with different rotation
lengths. Several factors make the long rotations far more profitable:
- Higher stumpage prices paid for larger logs, reflecting more high
value wood.
- Larger harvest volumes - 60 yr. rotations cut stands before CMAI.
Long rotation harvests almost twice as many board feet and 25% more cubic
feet than short rotation.
- The largest reason for greater profits is that costs are reduced.
Sixty year rotations require three times the site preparation, planting,
release, thinning, and sales management as does a 180 year rotation.
FUTURE NEEDS, FORESTRY PRACTICES, AND MARKETS
Long range trends indicate a strong directionality towards greater future
value of our forestry resources. There is a strong probability, for example,
that there will be a larger population of Oregonians in the future desiring
and needing to benefit from forest productivity and the financial value
of that productivity. There is a strong probability that there will be a
larger world population competing for a smaller base of available timber
and forest resource products, and that the future value of those products
will be greater than their present value.
Trends and forestry practices here and abroad indicate substantial
competitive benefit in an Oregon focus on higher quality product and sustainable
long-rotation practices with lower costs, higher sustainable harvest rates,
and far greater profits. At minimum, they suggest not discounting future
benefits in favor of immediate gain.
US - Timber harvests on many Oregon commercial forests have been increased
to as much as 5% of holdings cut per year. This represents a twenty year
total liquidation of the forest on those lands, major community disruption
during a minimum 40 year wait until timber can again be harvested, and an
order of magnitude increase in forest and fisheries stress. Such practices
represent liquidation of the timber asset to pay corporate takeover costs,
not forest practices necessary for either sustained yield, maximum economic
benefit, or forest health. Such overcutting is rapidly depleting our state
and national inventory of merchantable timber, which will result in an expanded
future market for timber owners who will have timber available during such
shortages.
GERMANY - Reports from 1993 visits to Germany and discussion with foresters
there indicated that Germany has moved largely to a mixed crop timber rotation
in the neighborhood of 250 years. The foresters indicated that "present-value"
analysis is considered worthless in their analysis. They noted that Germany's
currency has dropped to zero value twice in the last 80 years, and that
fluctuation in interest rates give a false picture of forest productivity.
Standing timber has repeatedly shown itself to be of greater value than
the cash obtained from premature harvest. German forests have also suffered
decreasing productivity from repeated harvesting (Plochman, 1968) which
is potentially tied to loss of soil fungal health.
JAPAN - Visits in 1991 and 1994 to forests in the Nagano, Shizuoka,
Yamanashi, Miyagi, and Kyoto Prefectures resulted in surprising conclusions
about current Japanese forestry practices. With the world currency market
favoring raw log imports from the U.S., it was supposed that Japanese foresters
were taking advantage of the opportunity to restock and maximize standing
timber growth available for future harvests. This proved not to be the case.
Observations repeated showed, with the exception of one temple-owned forest
in Kyoto, that forest management was virtually non-existent. Forest areas
were covered with shrubs and non-merchantable tree species. The land owners
indicated that with timber prices depressed, they could not afford to put
people into the forests to improve forest management.
WORLD - A recent study indicated that accelerated timber harvesting
for immediate financial benefit is rapidly destroying the sustainable yield
of forests worldwide. In ten years, only a few countries will be left with
export capability, with a yearly production of only a fraction of current
board ft/yr.
WHO SHOULD GET THE PROFITS FROM BETTER FOREST PRACTICES?
Counties and other taxing districts would be wise to press for re-examination
of the current legislative framework that grants ODF roughly 35% of forestry
revenues for management costs. This framework needs to be re-examined
for several reasons:
- The management cost agreement on other similar Oregon public forests
is less (31% for Common School Fund Lands). This indicates that at least
a 12% reduction could be argued even under current practices.
- This management cost ratio has covered management costs on all
state-managed lands without the Tillamook Forest, representing about
70% of state-managed lands, producing significant revenue for the last 50
years due to the Tillamook Burn. With all forest lands producing
revenue, reducing the management fee from 35% to 10.5% (a 70% reduction)
would produce the same revenues.
- Increases in timber values in recent years is providing
substantially more revenue without commensurate increase in management costs.
A lower management ratio, even with no change in practices or costs, would
provide equivalent revenues.
- Long-term rotation represents major savings (up to 75%) in management
costs. This savings, if accruing to the counties and taxing districts,
would represent a 40% increase in their revenues. It can well be argued,
particularly with the magnitude of change in net economic yield that long-rotation
harvest represents, that such savings should be passed on to the counties
and other beneficiaries rather than being retained in ODF coffers. A nine-fold
increase in net economic return represents a several-fold increase in ODF
revenues, and major increase in ODF revenue excess over costs.
Renegotiation of the management fees thus could result in a substantially
greater proportion of net revenues from long-rotation forestry
benefiting these counties and taxing districts as well as the greater net
revenues themselves.
HOW CAN WE MAKE A TRANSITION TO LONG ROTATION FORESTRY?
One workable strategy is the policy adopted by the County Board of Supervisors
in Mendicino County CA. It permits annual harvests of 1.75% or 2% of standing
forest inventory per year. With a young forest stand, wood production exceeds
this, allowing an actual increase in harvest each year until growth rates
reach and stabilize near the maximum annual increment. It thus permits a
simple transition from short rotation clear cutting to a long rotation forest
management. (Burkhardt, Hans, "Maximizing Forest Productivity",
Mendicino County CA", 1993.)
PENNY WISE AND POUND FOOLISH?
Why have current management practices so totally miscalculated the value
of management alternatives? One reason is that they have ignored the impacts
of practices in one area (timber production) on the productivity of other
areas (fisheries and recreation, for example). Secondly, they have employed
measurements which stress the benefits of maximizing immediate gain from
overharvesting timber while failing to incorporate the much greater total
benefits of other practices generating a larger and more sustainable revenue
flow.
The use of "present value accounting" (PNV) to determine management
plans for public forests is a clear example of measuring the wrong things.
Such "precise" calculations give a false appearance of the true
state of public forest management, concealing things like the $5.6 billion
loss of taxpayer dollars by Forest Service over the last decade from subsidizing
of logging sales.New York Times, "How Most of the Public Forests are
Sold to Loggers at a Loss," Nov. 3, 1991. Even on Oregon forests, most
PNV analysis incorporating expenditures shows negative financial benefit!
In addition to the direct financial losses, subsidized timber production
from public lands results in major losses in the value of timber owned by
private woodlot owners.
The use of PNV is an improper tool for management of public timber lands.
Its basic concept of ignoring the value of revenues in future years is contrary
to the ongoing revenue and economic productivity needs of public ownership.
Public agencies cannot accept analysis techniques and subsequent management
practices that result in loss of 90% of potential revenues. It is absolutely
contrary to the legislative mandate of ODF-managed lands, which requires
that ODF "secure the highest permanent usefulness to the whole
people of the state."
PNV provides, as shown above, small increases in immediate revenues at the
cost of major revenue loss in later years. It assumes interest rates on
"investments", when no investments are being made. By starting
with the costs associated with a bare acre of land, it assumes replanting
costs to be unavoidable. When we look at the alternative of longer rotations,
we see those major costs are avoidable. In maximizing immediate rather
than total financial return, PNV almost invariably causes timber to be cut
before it reaches its maximum cumulative average growth.
Proper assessment of management alternatives requires examination of all
revenue sources, associated costs as well as income, and the interaction
and effects of management practices of one area on the productivity of other
areas. With such assessment, the true value of alternatives such as long
rotation forestry become quite clear.
© December 1994 by Tom Bender, ©
1996 by Context Institute
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