From Dismal Science
To Joyful Art
Reframing economics so that it better fits the full diversity
of real economic life and can serve as a useful policy guide
for building a humane sustainable culture
One of the articles in Economics In An Intellegent Universe
(IC#2) Spring 1983, Page 28
Copyright (c)1983, 1996 by Context Institute
Thanks to the prediction by Malthus (in 1798) that population growth
would always outpace economic growth, industrial era economics early on
earned the label of "the dismal science". Even though Malthus's
predictions haven't come to pass (at least not yet), the name has stuck.
It seems somehow to reflect the cloud of unease that so many feel toward
the economic side of their lives. It is a cloud that many of us would like
to shake off, and indeed most of the articles in the preceding section are
stories, at a personal level, of working to rediscover the joys of productive
activity and fruitful exchange. Those various personal solutions are important
and illuminating, but can we carry them further to a more general vision?
How might we reframe our understanding of economics so that it better fits
the full diversity of real economic life and so that it can serve as a useful
policy guide for building a humane sustainable culture? I don't have a quick,
simple answer to that (reader be warned), but I have come across a number
of perspectives and concepts that seem to point in the right direction.
I'd like to share these in this article.
IF YOU ARE FOLLOWING the news, you are probably inundated with information
on the challenges facing our economy - from Mexico's debts to the problems
of the farmer, from the vigor of new high tech industries to the ups and
downs of OPEC. I don't want to cover that (all too familiar) ground here,
but rather to step back and attempt to see the deeper issues our economic
system faces. Here too there is a wealth of material to draw on as this
is a very active time for economic critics of almost every political persuasion.
In exploring this, it seems to me that the difficulties our system is facing
include both "classic" problems that have existed in the system
for at least a century, and "new" problems presented by changes
in technology, the environment, and general culture.
To understand these problems, it will help to start with some history.
The most central economic-political issue of the industrial era has been:
Which is a better shaper of economic activity and behavior, the market or
the government? Laissez-faire capitalism represents the pure market
pole, state-run communism represents the pure government pole, and the mixed
economies of Europe and the U.S. fall somewhere in between. The great debate
begins in the 1700's at the dawn of the industrial era. Up to that time,
economics was always subsidiary to politics and/or religion. By that time
in Europe, the age of exploration and colonization had already been underway
for 200 years, industrial activity was just starting to gather momentum,
and the power of the kingly state was high. The tradition of the state was
to intervene heavily in the economy on the argument that only through state
regulation could conflicts between different classes be handled justly and
a favorable balance of trade maintained. The merchants and manufacturers
naturally chafed against these regulations.
It was into this cultural setting that Adam Smith, in 1776, published
his Wealth Of Nations in which he synthesized much of the best economic
thought of the day into a powerful argument against state intervention in
the economy. His basic argument was that the price structure established
by the interplay of supply and demand in an unregulated market was the most
efficient way to get people producing just those things that others wanted,
and that a system of decentralized decision-making in which each producer
is free to run his/her business in whatever way is most profitable for her/him
was the most effective way to harness human motivation into productive activity.
These arguments had a profound impact then and are still influencing us
now. Indeed, to adequately understand our present situation, we need to
dig more deeply into the characteristics of the market.
The pro-market argument assumes that the goal of economic activity is
basically democratic, i.e., to deliver to the public the goods and
services it wants, not build pyramids for the Pharaoh. The market
theorist would argue that the best indication of how strongly people really
want something is how much they are willing to pay for it, and this is reflected
in the market price. Those who want a particular item more than other people
do, will bid up the price and thus shift more of that item their way. On
the cost (supply) side, producers will have to charge enough to meet their
own costs, so the price also reflects the relative difficulty of producing
each item. Run the argument all the way through, and it can be shown (mathematically)
that (in a finite world where choices have to be made), the interplay of
the market is indeed the most efficient way of matching those who are able
to produce with those who are willing to pay.
There are, however, a number of difficulties hidden in this analysis.
The first is that the market is in fact not truly democratic. It
is weighted in favor of those who have more wealth to begin with. The root
of this is that money, like most other things, obeys the "law"
of diminishing returns. That is, the more money you have to spend, the less
precious each dollar is to you. Thus a poor person and a rich person might
each be willing to spend 1% of their monthly spending on a loaf of bread
- indicating an equal relative desire for that item - but the 1% from the
rich will outbid the 1% from the poor every time. Thus the market directs
production and develops efficiency in a way that is weighted for the benefit
of those with more ability to pay.
The second difficulty is that the market is able to directly support
only certain kinds of activity, namely activities that deliver a direct
and obvious benefit to the buyer. There are a great many important and beneficial
activities that don't fall in that category because their benefits are diffuse
and/or long term. Child raising, for example, is crucial to society, and
the quality with which it is done can have a major impact on the quality
of life experienced by the next generation. Yet where, through the mechanism
of the market, are the "willing buyers" lining up to pay for
the next generation's quality of life? In some cultures parents did "invest"
in their children as old-age insurance, but in our society, child raising
is a gift, not an investment, and the plight of all too many children shows
how reluctant that support often is.
In an absolutely pure market system (no other distribution channels),
the only way an individual can obtain anything they don't have is to offer
something they do have in exchange for the desired item. For most people,
the major thing they have to exchange is their time. Anyone whose time is
partially committed to some activity that does not yield immediate marketable
benefits (as in child raising, studying, planting orchards, etc.) is at
a disadvantage because 1) they have less time to market, and 2) the remaining
time they do have is relatively more valuable to them and so they are likely
to be underbid until they are impoverished enough so that their relative
need goes up enough to offset this. Thus in a pure market system, most people
would be discouraged from doing all kinds of things that the society absolutely
depends on, and those who did would tend to be relatively exploited.
Fortunately there has never been such a society. In Adam Smith's day,
goods and services were distributed in a great many ways, not unlike today.
In addition to income from sales and wages in the market- place, there were
also 1 ) redistribution within families (often extended), 2) income from
ownership rights - rents, interest, and dividends, 3) mutual aid in communities,
4) charities, 5) crime, and of course, 6) taxation and government expenditure.
All of the various non-market forms were part of the assumed background,
and indeed if they were all eliminated, neither society nor the market could
function.
These criticisms apply to a "perfect" market, which requires
that each producer is relatively small, all competing products are indistinguishable
(no brand names or advertising), people always act on the basis of a rational
computation of their best economic advantage based on full unbiased information,
and no one uses political power to gain economic advantages. When these
"imperfections" are taken into account, the result is that the
market of the real world favors the wealthier, more powerful producers as
well as the wealthier consumers.
Do these drawbacks of the market mean that it should be abandoned? That
is what Marx thought. Working about three quarters of a century later than
Smith, he was in a different cultural setting. Industrial expansion was
in full swing, and the unpleasant side effects were becoming all too obvious.
Marx argued that free market capitalism, as it was developing at that time,
did not truly decentralize decision-making, but simply shifted it from an
aristocratic to an industrial elite, and that the dynamics of capitalism
were such that wealth (and power) tended to concentrate in the hands of
fewer and fewer industrialists. In order to bring the full benefits of industrial
economic progress to the great majority, he wanted to turn ownership of
industry over to the workers and eliminate the market. The economic system
would then need to be (at least initially) administered by the state.
Marx was really more of a critic than a builder, and much of the development
of applied Marxist economics has come from later followers. As it has developed
in today's communist countries it often begrudgingly includes some market
activity, but the ideal is to have the main aspects of the economy all centrally
planned and run. We all have our various opinions about how well this has
succeeded, but my favorite comes from Eugen Loebl, a Czech who has been
both a political prisoner and a high official (Director of the State Bank)
in that country before he left in 1968. In his book, Humanomics, he
says:
"We can make two important observations about the experiences of
the planned economies. First, they have demonstrated that it is possible
to formulate socioeconomic objectives for an economy based on applied science
and break these objectives down into target figures for every aspect of
production. . .
The second observation that we can make about planned economies is that
their plans never work."
The problem is that the planned approach gets the motivation all wrong
and, by centralizing decision-making, makes abysmal use of the intelligence
of most of the population. Not subject to the quality discipline of the
competitive market, but only required to reach a certain target quantity
of production, all this untapped intelligence devotes itself to meeting
the quotas with as little effort as possible. The result is often oversized
work forces and shoddy output. Attempting to deny the market is at least
as bad as attempting to base everything on it.
Where does this leave us? No wonder economics is referred to as the dismal
science. Seeing the difficulties of both pure market and pure state, the
countries of both Europe and North America have adopted mixed systems of
various sorts, but these too have their problems. In the rest of this article,
I'll focus on the situation in the U.S., but the principles can be applied
more broadly.
(As for economics as a study, there has been considerable mathematical
refinement during the last 100 years or so, but very little conceptual development.
Not that there aren't a few economists, such as Scott Burns, Herman Daly,
and Robert Theobald, who are dealing with the subject from a broader perspective,
but those economists who influence public policy and business are still
conceptually in Adam Smith's world.)
Our Current Situation
In our mixed system, the question of whether there is too much or too
little government activity in the economy is the standard issue that most
of our politics revolves around. Yet there are also other "classic"
issues that are affecting the behavior of our system. Below is a diagram
by Shann Turnbull (Australian business consultant and author of Democratizing
The Wealth Of Nations) that gives a view of our current problems in
terms of these classic issues.

Turnbull is primarily concerned with how to get a market based system
to function in a way that is generally beneficial - that is indeed democratic.
Implicit in his analysis is the idea that this can happen only when there
is a fairly broad distribution of wealth so that the market has "equal
players", and that money should be a reliable store of value, free
from manipulation. In the diagram, two items are identified as key causal
factors. Let me now provide more detail on each of these.
Wealth in the form of land and corporations tends to concentrate because
the more you have, the more you can afford to reinvest, thereby generating
still more. The two main "rules of ownership" that accentuate
this concentration are: 1) there are no built-in factors (such as requirements
of use or other involvement) that might tend to limit the amount of land
or corporate equity one person can own, and
2) there are no built-in factors to limit the life of ownership (such as
the time limits on patent rights or the natural depreciation of most personal
items, buildings, tools, etc.). Thus wealth in this form, once gained, requires
little effort to be retained. Whatever the general merits of these rules,
their result, in capitalist countries throughout the world, is to concentrate
the ownership of productive assets.
The cultural factor that is linked with this is that most people have
little experience in, skill at, or incentive to learn economic management
skills. This in turn makes them tend to play the economic game poorly, thereby
losing more wealth to those who play it well.
The second key factor - monopoly control of the money system - is something
whose importance has been made clearer through the recent worldwide growth
of inflation and the problems of large scale international and corporate
debt. The banking and money system can be used as a subtle but powerful
tool for influencing the economy of a society, as Keynes argued. It can
also be used to transfer wealth from one part of society to another unless
there are effective controls, beyond the reach of the government, including
some effective standard that keeps the value of money steady over time.
At the present time our money system has no such standard, and historically,
monopoly control has always provided an irresistible temptation to use that
power in the interest of the politicians and bankers who control the system.
Neither of these critiques is particularly new. The analysis of the tendency
for wealth to concentrate goes back at least to Ricardo and of course was
a central theme of Marx. It tends to be associated with left-wing critics
of the system. The analysis of the problems caused by monopoly money control
goes back at least 100 years to the populist movement, although in recent
years it has been most developed by right-wing critics of the system. For
me, a major part of the strength of Turnbull's analysis is his ability to
leave the usual ideological feuding behind and show the interaction between
these two problem areas. Not included on this diagram, but also contributing
to the breakdown of the system, are high levels of spending on nonproductive
items such as military hardware. Obviously the system has survived in spite
of these problems, but that does not mean they are not significant. They
are inefficiencies that we can afford to ignore only during times of general
easy affluence.
Yet the current difficulties that economies are facing come from more
than just these classic problems. Robert Theobald lists four non-economic
"driving forces" that are causing broad changes in our economic
life. These are:
1) Technological advances, especially in microelectronics, telecommunications
and biology. Of major socio-economic importance is the enormous potential
robotics and computers have for reducing the need for semi-skilled factory
workers and white collar clerks. Some new highly skilled jobs will be created,
but in much smaller numbers than those lost. Thus, unlike the past, any
major new spurt in investment is likely to increase unemployment.
2) The declining availability of energy and raw materials. Now
that we are starting to bump into the finiteness of non-renewable resources,
we are also being made aware that our economic system has absolutely no
mechanism for including the interests of future generations in its calculations.
3) The growing importance of maintaining environmental quality. Another
vital part of the real economy that our system doesn't include in its accounting
is the natural environment.
4) Changes in the labor force including the entry of more women
and the decline in unskilled jobs without a corresponding decline in unskilled
workers. The number of people who want jobs is growing at the same time
that technological advances are pressing to greatly reduce the number of
jobs.
The impact of these on our economic framework is that we must now take
into account new factors that are not directly represented in the market-place
(future generations, the environment), and we will have to reapproach the
whole question of the distribution of work and of goods and services.
In addition to, and in some ways standing above all this is the growing
importance of information in our society. John Naisbitt, in Megatrends,
identifies the following 10 items as the dominant socio-economic trends
going on in the country at this time:
1) We are in a major shift from an industrial to an information-based
society.
2) Every new technology (high tech) introduced is balanced by an increased
emphasis on personal interaction and community (high touch).
3) National economies are blending into a global economy.
4) Corporate decision makers are moving from short term to long term
planning.
5) We are shifting from centralization to decentralization.
6) We are turning away from institutional help to self-help.
7) Representative democracy is giving way to a greater emphasis on direct
participatory democracy.
8) Hierarchies are being replaced by networks.
9) The focus of economic growth is moving from the North to the South.
10) We no longer live in an either/or world; people are demanding and
getting a multitude of options.
With the possible exception of the move from North to South, each one
of these is an expression of the way in which there is more information
in our society today, we have more access to it, and we are more skilled
at using it.
Subtler than all these items, but woven through them, is the way that
we are changing our sense of what is important in life from things and possessing
to information and experiencing. The Values and Life Style study by Stanford
Research Institute describes the U.S. population as being divided into three
major groups: those who are focused on survival needs (about 10%), those
who are focused on status and approval needs - the "outerdirected"
- (about 60%), and those who are focused on personal growth and experience
needs - the "innerdirected" - (about 30%). The striking thing
about their study, however, was that the percentage in the "innerdirected"
group had grown rapidly during the 1970's and, consistent with Naisbitt's
trends, showed every indication of continuing to grow during the 1980's.
Every one of the articles in the first section reflects this shift. Of course,
in all these trends, the shift does not mean a black and white jump from
one category to another. The coming of industrial society did not mean that
people stopped all agriculture and in the same way, the shift to an information
society does not mean the end of industry. But the balance does shift, and
in ways that have profound affects throughout the culture.
A Toolbox Of Concepts
We have come a long way from the cottage industry world of Adam Smith
or the black smokestack world of Karl Marx. As I look at our current situation
and the dismalness of the standard economic systems, I am reminded of one
of my favorite puzzles. In this puzzle the challenge is to take 6 match
sticks and arrange them so that each end of each stick is touching the ends
of two others. People will usually lay the sticks out in front of them and
try all kinds of unsuccessful patterns until they realize that the problem
can't be solved in two dimensions. The solution is very simple when you
get it - a pyramid. Likewise, if we are to adequately deal with our new
complexity we will need to go beyond the limited market-state dimension.
We need a richer vocabulary of models, concepts and options to draw on.
I'd like to suggest the following items as particularly helpful conceptual
tools for going beyond the traditional domain of economics.
Spheres of Economic Activity While conventional economics claims
to be (and needs to be) a broad study of the production and distribution
of goods and services, in practice it has focused almost entirely on only
one area (or sphere) of productive activity - namely the "cash"
economy. The productivity within households, the informal economies within
communities, the productivity of ecosystems have all been ignored and/or
taken for granted. The reason sometimes given for ignoring the non-cash
economies is that since there are no prices, there is no objective way to
determine the value of these activities - "since we don't know how
to handle it, we will assume it's unimportant." Yet this is hardly
a minor oversight. In The Household Economy (still the best introduction
to the economic importance of the non-market economies), Scott Burns shows
that even in our highly cash-economy oriented society, at least 1/3 of all
"income" comes in the direct form of goods and services through
productive activities in the household and community. For most people in
the world, the cash economy accounts for only a small part of their total
economic activity. Nor is this merely an academic problem. The close connection
between economics and politics has meant that because these other "economies"
have been left out of the standard accounting, they have been systematically
undervalued and depleted in the interest of boosting the market economy.
The result of this "oversight" has been devastating in many Third
World countries where well established community economies have been destroyed
as a "side effect" of development programs aimed at boosting the
country's Gross National Product, leaving the country richer on paper but
poorer in fact (see, for example, the following article by Belden Paulson).
The lesson here is that we cannot expect to develop a useful new economics
unless we take into account the household, the community, and the biosphere
as significant spheres of economic activity.
Materials, Skills, and Time Economic activity requires inputs.
Economists sometimes divide these into such things as land, capital and
labor, but I find another set of three categories more useful, i.e. material
goods (land, equipment, supplies, etc.), skills (including knowledge) and
time. The special thing about this division is that each type of input is
governed by distinctly different laws. Material goods are all limited in
abundance and normally subject to wear (depreciation and entropy) through
use. They obey an economy of scarcity in the sense that they can only be
in one place at one time, and use by one person or group generally means
that resource or tool is not available for use at the same time by others.
Every apple I eat means one less apple available for someone else. (This
"economy of scarcity" does not mean that someone must always
be left empty-handed, but just that we need to treat our material resources
with care. I think it was Gandhi who put it well by saying, "The earth
has enough for every man's need, but not every man's greed.")
Skills and knowledge, on the other hand, obey an economy of multiplication.
If I "give" a skill to someone else, I don't thereby lose it.
(In fact, my skill probably grows through the process of teaching it to
another.) There are no physical limits on the amount of skill and knowledge
one can have (and we are obviously still a long way from whatever mental
limits may exist). As for depreciation, skills tend to decline not from
use but from lack of use.
The third input, time, is also different. Unlike the others, it can't
be stored or transferred. It is always limited, yet never wears out. It
is the most democratic resource, and (as discussed in the article "The Importance of Time") it is probably the
ultimate limiting resource.
The Diversity of Motivations Conventional economics (both as a
formal theory and in business practice) assumes that human desires for economic
goods and services are unlimited, and that we work primarily for external
(outer-directed) reasons, e.g. to get paid so that we can consume. Psychologists
like Abraham Maslow suggest instead that people operate on the basis of
a hierarchy of needs, starting from survival, going up through security,
esteem and love, to self-actualization. The consumption needs of each level
are limited, and when they are truly met, attention tends to shift to the
next level up until one reaches the level of self-actualization which is
a creative need, focused on intrinsic rewards, rather than a deficiency
need. In this model, as one becomes more skilled in satisfying various levels
of needs, one's demand for goods and services may actually decline. Clearly,
the theory of motivation assumed can make a major difference in the type
of economic system developed.
Another useful model for understanding the diversity of human motivation
is the idea of the three levels of the human brain developed by Paul MacLean,
Chief of the Laboratory of Brain Evolution and Behavior at the National
Institute of Mental Health. Physically, our brains are a combination of
a central stem that is very like the brains of reptiles, a second layer
that is like the brains of other mammals, and an outer neo-cortex that is
distinctly human. MacLean suggests that our behavior reflects this physical
organization. The reptilian part is concerned with territory, possessions,
and physical space; the mammalian part is concerned with relationships,
status, and emotions, and the neo-cortex is concerned with synthesis and
creativity. The three brain levels trace out the same hierarchy of needs
as Maslow's model, but this model emphasizes that these needs are not only
with us all the time, but that different parts of the brain can act independently,
even in opposition. In either model, the goal is to meet all the needs in
a coordinated way. If we are to develop a realistic new economic framework,
we need to appreciate this full diversity of motivations not only between
people but within each of us.
Modes of Communication and Organization Conventional economics
assumes that there are only two significant forms of communications and
organization: via price in the market-place and via command in a hierarchical
organization. Capitalist economies use both while Marxist economies rely
primarily on hierarchy. Yet as usual, real human behavior is more diverse.
Turnbull, in his economic study of aboriginal society for the Australian
Parliament, found that he had to include two other economically significant
modes: spontaneous communications in small groups, and forms of organization
based on membership/ownership/relationship positions. To these I would add
a fifth type, the network. Each has its strengths, and by having all of
them in our toolbox, we can construct much more appropriate economic systems.
Feedback and Time Lags When your action produces a reaction
that affects your next action, you are in a feedback loop. When your action
produces a reaction 10 years from now, you are in a feedback loop with a
time lag. One of the challenges of real life is that our actions often produce
many different reactions with a broad range of time lags. It is all too
easy to respond primarily to the immediate feedback and ignore the long
term, but the results of this can be disastrous. Farming by heavy cropping
without caring for the soil may yield bigger profits now, but destroy the
farm within a few years. On the other hand, short term costs can prevent
us from making positive long term investments. Normal accounting attempts
to include long term effects through such things as depreciation and discounted
cash flow analysis, but rarely does the time line extend beyond 20 years.
Such a system has no way to compare the value of a building that will last
hundreds of years with one that will need to be replaced in 20. And where
in our accounting do we include the cost of cancers that develop twenty
years from now due to today's high levels of air/water/soil pollution? It
is not an easy problem, but one that a sustainable culture has to be able
to deal with.
The Tragedy of the Commons The great hopeful vision of
Adam Smith was that the competitive market would turn personal profit seeking
into social good by encouraging production yet protecting buyers from overcharging.
A truly competitive market can function this way, but unfortunately, overpricing
is not the only problem that can come from greed. The following story is
a famous example of how profit seeking and time lags can combine in areas
outside the market to produce major problems.
English villagers, like villagers in many parts of the world, held certain
grazing lands in common. Imagine a village with 10 families, each family
with 10 sheep, and suppose that the commons is at the limit of its sustainable
grazing capacity with these 100 sheep. As long as each family restricts
itself to 10 sheep, all goes well. But suppose one year one farmer expands
to 11 sheep. This 1% addition to the herd may push the commons into overgrazed
condition, but so slightly that in the first year no one will notice. Everyone
else will, however, notice that he has increased his income by 10%. Next
year everybody wants to do the same, but if they do, the impact on the commons
will be disastrous. The commons may take years to recover, during which
time it will support few, if any, sheep.
The air and water around us are obvious parts of our "commons",
but so too are such things as the vitality and good will in our communities.
If we want to protect these, we may have to restrain some activities by
some means other than the competitive market.
Scale and Optimization One of the basic principles in economics
is the law of diminishing returns. For example, adding a fourth player to
a volleyball team that had three makes a big difference; adding a tenth
to nine has less impact. In more precise terms, the basic idea is as follows:
Human activity generally involves the blending together of many inputs.
Some of these inputs are easily varied (e.g. the number of players),
while others are relatively fixed (the size of the court, the one
ball). If one input is relatively low, it will be the limiting factor
and the other inputs will be underutilized. As the limiting factor is
increased up to the point where all the inputs are in optimal balance, the
output of the system will increase approximately in proportion to the increase
in the limiting factor. But beyond the balance point, the variable input
(players) is no longer the limiting factor, and extra amounts of that input
will no longer produce as much increase in output, i.e., the returns on
that input diminish. Thus every activity has an optimal scale determined
by the most limiting fixed input.
The following diagram, showing the general relationship between benefits
and costs for some varying input, takes these ideas a step further.

The benefit curve is a direct expression of diminishing returns. The
cost curve looks different, but it is just "the other side of the coin"
of the same principle. It rises because (usually) the more you want, the
harder it is to get - demand drives the price up. Subtracting costs from
benefits gives the net benefit of that input (dashed line) which
has a maximum at a limited input. Beyond that optimum, more is worse.
While this may all seem obvious and tedious, it is remarkable how
poorly we apply these principles in our current economic system. For
example, let the "input" in the figure be goods and services from
the market-place and let the output we are seeking be quality experience.
Conventional growth economics assumes that more will always be better. This
implies that there are no other inputs to our experience, thereby ignoring
the role of both our own skills and time. Time is especially crucial as
a limiting factor, as is discussed in more detail in the article
about time.
These principles also help to make clear why concentration of wealth
leads to economic inefficiency. A clear example is the distribution of farm
land in Third World countries. Consider an initial situation in which there
are 11 families who have use of a total of 55 acres, but most of this land
is concentrated so that one family works 53 acres and the other ten work
1/5 of an acre each. The small plots are too small to fully utilize the
human energy of the 10 families, while the large piece is too large to be
farmed intensively. If the land were divided so that each had approximately
5 acres to work, the total yield of the land and the utilization of the
human energy available would be much higher. Thus the value of any resource
depends as much on its distribution as on its absolute amount.
On the other hand, these same principles suggest that exact equality
in the distribution of material goods is likewise undesirable and inefficient.
First, people have different interests and abilities, and so different capacities
to utilize any particular resource, and second, the long term health of
the social 'ecosystem' requires diversity. Thus, like most other things,
diversity and inequality have an optimal scale.
Game Sums During World War II, mathematicians dealing with questions
of strategy developed an area of study known as game theory. The particular
concept I want to take from this is the idea that an important characteristic
of any game is the total effect it has on all the players. That is, if you
add up all the gains and losses, does playing the game create more gains
(positive sum), a balance of gains and losses (zero sum), or a net loss
(negative sum)? It is a very simple idea, but its importance lies in focusing
attention on the whole game, and that some games (i.e. systems) have
more positive overall results than others.
Facing The Issues
It is time now to put some of these pieces together. Our initial goal
was to find a realistic framework for the economics of a sustainable culture.
The ground we have covered so far suggests that the problem with conventional
economic theory is that it is too narrow. Too many significant factors have
been left out. We can begin to build a broader framework by restating the
basic goal we see for economic activity. In conventional economics - capitalist
or Marxist - it is to produce and distribute goods and services as abundantly
and as efficiently as possible. In the economics appropriate to a sustainable
information society it becomes: to sustainably support as high a quality
of human experience as possible, as efficiently as possible. We could rephrase
the first as "maximize efficient market- place activity" and the
second as "sustainably optimize quality of life". People of Adam
Smith's day would have seen these two as basically the same, except the
first was simpler and more precise. Yet the experience of the past 200 years
makes it all too clear that they are not the same, and whatever difficulties
there may be in defining such things as "quality of life", we
can't back off from the broad scope this second goal implies and still expect
to develop the kind of whole system understanding we need.
This broader scope raises new issues that are likely to be major economic-political
issues as we shift from an industrial society to an information (hopefully
humane sustainable) one. We will still have the old ones (balance between
market and state, rules of ownership, and control of the money and banking
system), but to these will be added:
The right relationship between market, household, and community. As
trivial as it may sound, one of the most important aspects here is the type
of economic statistics that we gather and use. Such things as the GNP measure
only market activity and completely ignore productivity outside the cash
economy in households and communities. If we are going to use statistics
as a basis for policy, we need to develop a whole new set of statistics
that track the productivity in each economic sphere as well as tracking
overall quality of life. When we begin to treat the non-cash economies on
an equal basis with the cash economy, then we can also begin to work out
properly balanced, efficient and supportive relationships among them all.
Representing the interests of those without voice. The natural
environment and future generations have no direct voice in either government
or any economic sphere, yet we cannot have a sustainable culture without
paying significant attention to their interests. At the moment, our major
approach to this issue is through special interest groups and the promotion
of government regulations, but is that the best or the only way? What role
does art and ritual have to play? How about public opinion mobilized through
good communications networks and expressed through selective buying?
One of the most promising approaches is that being taken by the land
trust movement. The age-old debate about property rights usually focuses
on the limited question of private vs. state and assumes that ownership
is either black or white - you either have it or you don't. In actual practice
however, "ownership" generally refers to a whole bundle of rights
and they are rarely absolute. By separating these rights, land trusts are
finding ways to maintain many of the normal benefits of private ownership
for user-owners, and at the same time protect the long term interests of
the community, as for example when a conservation land trust holds the development
rights to a piece of farm land. An interesting aspect of this approach is
that the land trust, which supposedly represents the broader interests of
the community, is a non-governmental group. This has both problems and benefits,
but it does add a new dimension to the old private vs. state debate. To
some extent, government regulation will undoubtedly always be necessary,
but it would be dreary indeed if that was our only tool for giving voice
to the hills, trees and great grandchildren.
Limits and optimization. In Adam Smith's day, human energy and
technical capacity was (generally) the limiting factor in economic activity,
so there was no need to consider holding back from doing all that was technically
possible. We, however, are much closer to the limits of "the commons".
We need an economic outlook that can help make optimal use of our limited
resources and help us avoid the temptation to add the 11th sheep. An essential
tool for doing this comes from realizing that of the three types of inputs,
only two of them - material goods and time - are limited. As far as we know,
there is no limit to the growth and refinement of human skill. Thus a major
strategy for an economic system of a sustainable culture is to focus its
growth, not on quantity of goods, but on quality of skill (which is also
what you would expect from an information society).
Let me expand on this a bit. There are three places where skill enters
into economic activity: skill in design, skill in manufacture or implementation,
and skill in use and maintenance. The first two might be called the embodied
skill within an object, organization, or system, while the third is the
immediate human skill that interacts with that embodied skill. They are
like three links of a chain, and the overall efficiency of any economic
activity will be limited by the weakest link. For example, it makes no sense
to build cars that can last for 100 years (technically not difficult) if
people's skill in use and maintenance is so poor that the cars are wrecked
in typically 10 years. As we move to more "long-life" products,
the distributed skill in use (especially in households and communities)
will become an increasingly important part of the intangible wealth of the
society. The new economics needs to develop ways to acknowledge and support
all three skill levels with the proper balance, thereby achieving optimal
use of the limited resources - materials and time.
Indeed, we need to make a much more profound commitment to genuine efficiency
throughout the whole system if we are to have a culture that is both sustainable
and humane. The good news is that in fact our present culture is massively
inefficient in its use of material resources, human energy and talents,
and therefore also time. The progress made in energy conservation (more
rapid than most "experts" expected) indicates just the tip of
the iceberg of our inefficiency. Most of the products we use could be made
to last much, much longer than they now do. While initial costs might be
higher, life cycle cost would be much lower, as would consumption of resources.
(The difficulty, of course, is that total sales volume would also be much
lower.) Rebuilding community is another means through which we can use resources
much more efficiently (as illustrated in Serious's article about the Love
Family).
Yet probably the most profound way we are currently inefficient is through
our belief in the magic of possessions. Through the culture of consumerism,
we have been trained to believe that we can meet psychological needs through
objects and activities whose primary value is their symbolic associations.
This hope that we can buy our way to happiness drives us to levels of consumption
far above what is actually needed for a comfortable and creative existence,
yet the satisfaction we seek eludes us (or is at best temporary). This whole
bubble of drives and hopes rapidly deflates when we discover that there
are in fact effective and much simpler ways to satisfy our needs for security,
esteem, and love through psychological skills and relationships. This discovery
(not really new, but forgotten by our culture for a while) is very much
part of the "megatrend" pattern, and it opens the door to a much
more materially efficient society. Some of the possibilities of this shift
are explored by Duane Elgin in Voluntary Simplicity.
All of this, however, will not absolve us of the need and the responsibility
to make some hard decisions about when enough is enough and what is optimum.
While hopefully we can design systems that have as much flexibility and
room for personal freedom as possible, there will be places where the community
will have to insist that "the commons is limited to 100 sheep".
The distribution of work and resources. This is not really a new
issue, but it has been greatly intensified by the trends in our current
situation. As the bonds of family and community have weakened and as wealth
has concentrated, we have come to rely more heavily on market-place jobs
as the primary legitimate means of obtaining goods and services. Because
this is inadequate, we have also turned to more and more government welfare,
but as a society our feelings remain ambiguous about the legitimacy of this.
Thus we find ourselves with the demand for market jobs rising just at
the point when the need for these jobs is declining, and when much of the
work that needs to be done exists outside the market. We will either 1)
attempt to prevent market-place from becoming more efficient for the sake
of providing more jobs (disastrous for sustainability and unlikely to succeed
in the face of international competition),
2) move in the direction of the "third-worldization" of our society
with larger and larger gaps between the "haves" and "have-nots"
(a system that makes very inefficient use of human and material resources),
or 3) we will need to develop new means of maintaining the flow of goods,
services, and opportunities through the whole social system.
What are the alternatives? There are many. Job sharing, more part-time
work, shorter work weeks, and other forms of reducing the average amount
of time spent in a job all have the advantage of spreading the responsibilities
and pleasures of market-place work as well as spreading access to goods
and services. We can also work to strengthen community and extended family
bonds. In addition, we can make broader use of ownership rights. In his
book, Democratizing The Wealth Of Nations, Turnbull describes a variety
of ways to redesign the rules for owning land and corporations so that these
forms of wealth will spread rather than concentrate. The Mondragón
cooperatives described in a later article provide another major approach
to spreading ownership. Finally, there are many ways (private, governmental,
small group level to international) for directly redistributing buying power.
Clearly, if we wanted to find ways of more broadly and flexibly
distributing both the wealth and the work of the society, we easily could,
but during the industrial era, we have been reluctant to do so. Why should
we, as a society, behave any differently as the information era develops?
Perhaps the simplest way to answer this is to note that the industrial era,
with its focus on material goods and the economy of scarcity, trained people
to see life in terms of zero sum games - if you gain it must mean I lose.
The information era, with its economy of multiplication, will have more
experience with and give more attention to positive sum games - if you gain,
I'll gain too through feedback loops. These new perceptions will get our
minds to appreciate the value of the sharing our hearts have always understood.
That is the general idea, but we can also be more specific. Job sharing
and other forms of shorter work times will grow more popular because, in
our information and experience rich society, our personal time will become
increasingly valuable, and our relative interest in market-place goods and
services will decline (see the article on time).
We will strengthen community as part of the "high touch" trend
- because community will be one of our most effective sources of quality
experience. We will broaden ownership rights as in the Mondragón
cooperatives because intelligence is becoming the leading business asset,
and as the intelligent labor force comes to understand it is in the driver's
seat, it will have no reason to accept anything less than the Mondragón
level of control. As this experience grows and community life strengthens,
we will apply the same principles to land. We will support direct transfers
of buying power to support activities outside the market economy because
we will understand from experience how important these non-market activities
are to health of the society. We will understand that adequately supporting
labors of love is the most efficient way to maximize the amount of positive
creativity in the world around us.
In building these new modes for distributing both work and wealth in
the society, it seems to me that it will be essential for us to understand
that this is not purely an economic problem. Economic distribution is intimately
tied up with questions of legitimacy, status and power. In effect, it is
not the neo-cortex we have to deal with, but the mammalian and especially
the reptilian parts of our brains. These may do us a great service by forcing
us to make these changes in truly balanced ways.
Do these new perspectives indeed move us in the direction of "economics
as a joyful art"? Classical economics came to dismal conclusions because
it assumed that the only "tools" available were the market and
the mores of the time. Marxist economics has shown itself to be even more
dismal through its heavy dependence on hierarchical structures and the state.
I hope this discussion makes it clear that we are no longer bound by these
limitations. We have new concepts, new techniques, and whole new cultural
patterns to work with. We can make use of all kinds of modes of communication
and forms of organization. We can take into account all the different factors
that really contribute to productive activity. We don't have to act in stupid
and self-defeating ways just because the way we did things in the past is
too narrow for the future. Our economics can be as intelligent, as subtle,
as beautiful, as joyful as the universe it reflects.
In doing this, we will always need to combine and balance many diverse
elements including things that may not be easily quantified. We will have
to use our full capacity to value and discriminate, even though we may be
greatly aided by the techniques of mathematics and the information processing
abilities of computers. Thus at its foundation, the charting of our economic
life will remain that kind of fully human process we call an art.
Bibliography
Burns, Scott, The Household Economy (New York: Doubleday &
Company, 1975).
Daly, Herman E., Steady-State Economics (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman
& Company, 1977).
Dyke, C., Philosophy Of Economics (New Jersey: Prentice- Hall,
1981).
Elgin, Duane, Voluntary Simplicity (New York: William Morrow &
Company, 1981).
Galbraith, John Kenneth, Money - Whence It Came, Where It Went (Boston:
Houghton Mifflin Company, 1975).
Gill, Richard, Evolution Of Modern Economics (New Jersey: Prentice-Hall,
1967).
Heilbroner, Robert L., The Worldly Philosophers (New York: Simon
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Loebl, Eugen, Humanomics (New York: Random House, 1976)
Naisbitt, John, Megatrends - Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives
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